A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
